Feed-in tariffs fluctuate because, since 2026, they have been directly linked to the electricity market – which is driven by four forces: European energy prices, the weather and annual rhythm, the paradoxical self-effect of the solar boom (the more solar power at midday, the lower its price), and political guardrails. For planning, this implies a simple discipline: never extrapolate from a single year, calculate a conservative range – and keep your dependence on the tariff low through self-consumption. (As of: July 2026)
Key points in brief
- The days of fixed remuneration guaranteed for decades (the KEV era) are over – today the tariff reflects the market value of electricity.
- Driver 1: the European electricity market – gas, CO₂ and import prices feed through all the way to your quarterly statement.
- Driver 2: the annual rhythm – sunny quarters with lots of solar power systematically depress prices, winter scarcity raises them.
- Driver 3: the cannibalisation effect – the build-out of solar systems lowers the market value of exactly their own production hours.
- Driver 4: politics – minimum remuneration as a floor, supported tariffs at individual utilities (ewz) as a deliberate countermove.
- Consequence: build profitability on self-consumption, calculate feed-in conservatively as a range.
A brief look back: from guarantee to market
Anyone comparing quotes today encounters narratives from three eras. In the KEV era, systems received guaranteed, cost-covering feed-in tariffs for years – a support instrument that has long since closed. What followed was a patchwork of freely set utility tariffs, with upward swings in the high-price years 2022/23, when the European energy crisis briefly pushed feed-in tariffs to unusual heights – followed by a sobering correction. Since 2026, today's system applies: reference market price as the standard, minimum remuneration as the floor, with voluntarily higher models at individual utilities on top.
The most important lesson from this history: every one of these eras was considered permanent by system owners at the time. Anyone who calculated with 20 centimes in 2022 was disappointed just as surely as anyone who calculated with 4 centimes in 2019 was reassured. Tariffs are a snapshot, not a promise.
The four drivers in detail
1. The European electricity market. Switzerland is embedded in the European price structure – gas prices, CO₂ costs and the availability of French nuclear power move exchange prices, and via the reference market price this lands proportionally on your statement. This explains the large, multi-year waves.
2. The annual rhythm. Within each year, the same pattern repeats: summer quarters with long days and lots of simultaneous solar feed-in are low-price periods, winter quarters are scarcity periods. This sawtooth pattern is not a fault but a system characteristic – Winterthur has even turned it into a product with its seasonal fixed prices.
3. Cannibalisation. The most uncomfortable driver: the more solar systems are added, the greater the midday supply – and the lower the market value of exactly those hours when all systems are producing. Solar power eats into its own price. Put bluntly, this means the trend of the pure market value of midday solar power is structurally more likely to point downward – while electricity in the evening and in winter remains valuable. This is exactly where batteries, self-consumption strategies and winter production (steep roofs, façades) draw their growing importance from.
4. Politics. Deliberate interventions counter pure market logic: the statutory floor that caps the fall, and supported tariffs at individual utilities – above all ewz, where solar build-out is politically intended to be remunerated more highly. This layer can change with every legislative period – in either direction.
What does that mean for your viability calculation?
Three planning rules follow from the four drivers, which we apply in every quote:
1. Don't extrapolate from a single year. Neither the best nor the worst quarter is suitable as a planning value – a conservative range is calculated over the system's lifetime, with the minimum remuneration as a stress test. 2. Minimise the dependency. The higher your self-consumption rate, the less this entire article matters to you – the purchase tariff you save is far more stably calculable than any feed-in revenue. 3. Keep your options open. Plan battery-ready, review model choices annually (where they exist), keep an eye on LEG developments – the marketing landscape of 2030 will look different from today, and a flexibly planned system can move with it.
And the reassuring overall picture: in the honest overall calculation of a self-consumption system, tariff fluctuation moves the return by decimal places, not by its sign. It belongs in expectation management – not as a first-order investment risk.
We keep a small curiosity on file: quote attachments from other providers from three eras – one from 2019 («calculated at 4 Rp., solar power barely worth it»), one from 2022 («22 Rp., payback in 6 years!») and one from 2025 in between. All three extrapolated in a straight line from the moment they were written. This is precisely why our quotes calculate feed-in with a deliberately wide, conservative range and state the assumption openly: not because we know the future, but because we explicitly do not. A system that already works in the cautious scenario survives every one of the four waves – that is the only forecast we stand by.
Frequently asked questions
Will feed-in tariffs rise or fall in the long term?
Honestly: nobody knows. Structurally, solar build-out depresses midday prices (cannibalisation), while electrification and winter scarcity provide support. Plan with a range – anyone who «guarantees» you a direction is selling you something other than forecasts.
Can the tariff fall below today's minimum remuneration?
Only if the legislator lowers the floor – the market price alone cannot do it. Ordinance values can be adjusted; even so, today's floor is the best available stress-test scenario.
Should I wait with my system until tariffs rise again?
Waiting definitely costs something (every year without self-consumption savings), while the hoped-for tariff gain is uncertain – and feed-in is the smaller earnings pillar anyway. Timing speculation pays off with electricity prices about as well as it does on the stock market.
Why did my neighbour get more per kWh three years ago?
Probably the 2022/23 high-price phase – an exceptional window unlikely to repeat itself any time soon. Compare systems on their overall calculation, not on the lucky year of their commissioning.
Does a fixed-price model (e.g. AEW) protect me from fluctuations?
For the respective calendar year, yes – but fixed prices are reset annually and follow the market level with a delay. It is smoothing, not a long-term guarantee.
Free initial consultation
Calculated for the cautious scenario.
Our quotes state the feed-in assumptions openly and calculate conservatively – so that your system works in every tariff era.
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Swissolar-certified specialist company · ESTI installation authorisation (Art. 14 NIV) · in Zurich since 2017 · over 150 systems completed · a personal answer from the specialist company, no call centre
Sources: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (reference market price, historical market data), ElCom (market monitoring), Electricity Act/Energy Ordinance.
Last updated: 9 July 2026 · Author: ecoEn editorial team
